The monthly report on general fund revenue collections from the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) was issued this morning.

For the sales tax, the use tax, the business and occupation tax, the public utility tax, the tobacco products tax, and penalties and interest (collectively the Revenue Act receipts), this report covers payments received between March 11 and April 10. These payments generally relate to transactions that occurred in the month of February, mostly before Russia’s February 24th invasion of Ukraine.

For liquor taxes, cigarette tax, property tax, real estate excise tax, unclaimed property and other sources, the report covers payments received between March 1 and March 31. Again, most of these payments relate to transactions made prior to the Russian invasion.

The total amount received was $1,858.0 million, $182.9 million (10.9%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on February 16th.

Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupation taxes) exceeded forecast by $160.8 million (11.2%). ERFC staff note:

Seasonally adjusted collections increased sharply from last month’s level … Much of this increase was likely due to the sharp increase in February inflation, which was unforeseen by the forecast.

Here is a chart showing seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts since 2004:

Non-Revenue Act taxes exceeded forecast by $22.3 million (9.7%). Within this grouping: real estate excise tax (REET) exceeded forecast by $26.3 million (23.0%); liquor taxes exceeded forecast by $3.5 million (14.2%); cigarette tax exceeded forecast by $4.8 million (23.6%); and property tax fell short of forecast by $14.9 million (24.4%).

As I noted above, the economic activity driving this collections report mostly predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It may take several more months for significant effects to show up in state collections. I expect we will experience both slower job growth and faster inflation than the current forecast foresees. The former would tend to decrease collections; the latter would tend to increase collections. The net effect on revenue is not yet clear.

On the one hand … on the other …

The collections report is available here.